By National Council On Radiation Protection (Other Contributor)
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Additional resources for A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination (N C R P Report)
Factors to keep in mind when making probability judgments: The purpose of this part of the protocol is to help the experts provide probabilities that accurately represent their judgments. 3 FORMAL ELICITATION PROCESS 1 41 is accomplished primarily through review of some commonly found cognitive biases and simplifying heuristics and through some suggestions on how to try to mitigate their effects. The topics covered include (1) effects related to the order in which evidence is considered or probabilities assessed, (2) the effect of memory on judgment, (3) the tendency to overestimate the reliability of information, (4) the influence of the importance of events on probability judgments, and (5)the difficulty of discriminating between levels of uncertainty.
New York). T. (1992). RiskQ: A n Interactive Approach to Probability, Uncertainty, and Statistics for Use with Mathematica-Reference Manual (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California). L.
Consolidate and aggregate results Consolidation was not needed in the ozone chronic risk assessment because the problem was not divided into smaller parts to facilitate the elicitation process. ^ Review and communication of results The entire elicitation process and results were carefully documented. Experts received written records of their judgments after each round of encoding. After the second round of encoding, the experts were asked to "sign off' on their judgments to signify that what was recorded accurately reflected their feelings and beliefs.
A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination (N C R P Report) by National Council On Radiation Protection (Other Contributor)